Inside Pigs
Chinese pig herd halved before 2020
About 1 year after an outbreak of African swine fever was first detected in China, the pig population has decreased by almost 40%. This decline is expected to continue until it halves.
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Without reporting exact numbers, the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture reports that the pig herd fell by 38,7% in August, compared to the same measurement moment 1 year earlier. The sow herd has shrunk by 37,4% in the same period. These figures confirm that the number of pigs in China continues to decline rapidly, as one month ago the decline was just over 1%.
Chenjun Pan, an analyst at Rabobank in China, expects the pig herd to be halved by the end of this year. "The pig herd may be able to bounce back during 2020," she says. The Chinese government is trying hard to find an answer to the major meat shortage and is therefore praising generous grants out for large pig farms that are increasing production.
Ever higher pig prices
Pig prices are now rising further. After the 2016 record in mid-August was broken, the upward trend has continued. The average Chinese pig price reached 16 yuan per kilo live weight on Monday, September 26,99. At the current exchange rate, this is €3,46 per kilo.
The high pig prices in China also provide a solid floor for European pig prices. However, China has reportedly lifted import tariffs american pork deleted. This decision has a negative impact on European exporters, who lose their competitive advantage.