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Inside Pigs

Chinese demand even wilder, but enough pigs

18 October 2019 - Wouter Baan

The demand for pork is still very good. China buys more than they already did, making the ready-to-slaughter pigs in demand. However, they are not sparse. 

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China, China and more China. That's what sets the tone. Chinese demand for European pork has been booming for some time and sales are even increasing again compared to recent weeks. This is because volumes are purchased at this time of year for the celebration of the Chinese New Year, which is scheduled for Saturday, January 25. Naturally, pork cannot be missed at this festival, so Europe (and to a lesser extent the United States) must be emptied.

Chinese pork price continues to rise
The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture announced at the beginning of this week that the number of pigs in September had shrunk by 41% compared to the same month the year before. Exact numbers are not mentioned. Assuming that China has 460 million pigs, that amounts to almost 190 million pigs.

It is therefore not surprising that the Chinese pork price continues to rise rapidly. In mid-October, the average Chinese pig price was above 30 Chinese Yuan per kilo (live weight). This amounts to €3,84 per kilo.

Meat prices up
Surprisingly enough, the European demand for pork is also not bad. This is also evident from the first official meat mutations from DCA-Markets which were published on Monday, October 14. The hams, ribs, steaks and bellies went up. The head tenderloin did yield. 

The above signals could be reasons for a higher pig price. However, it doesn't want to go that fast. The German VEZG quotation remained stuck again this week at €1,85 per kilo. The Internet Exchange also fails to excite and has fluctuated around €1,90 per kilo for many auctions in a row. Perhaps it has to do with the meat processing industry again this week the alarm clock has sound. 

Stable DCA Scholarship Price 2.0
The Dutch pig trade is also opting for a constant DCA Exchange Price 2.0. It is indicated that the pigs are placed more easily, but on the other hand, the supply is relatively wide. Also last week, the Dutch slaughter figure was well above 300.000 and the weights are increasing. 

A higher pig price at this time of year would be exceptional from a historical perspective, but cannot be ruled out in this 'crazy market' if some form of shortage still presents itself. A tight supply is not likely around Christmas. This is in view of the stables that then have to be emptied. In that case it should come down to the coming weeks. For the time being, however, the DCA Exchange Price 2.0 remains the same at €1,76 per kilo for the slaughtered pigs. The price of live pigs remains at €1,42 per kilo.

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