Pork production will fall by 10 percent

A new report from the USDA shows that the organization expects global pork production to decline by 2020% in 10 to 95,2 million tons. This is the lowest level since 2007. The various outbreaks of African swine fever underlie this. Although most exporters will benefit from these outbreaks, this is not enough to compensate for the expected decline in production in China, Vietnam and the Philippines, among others.

Smaller pig herd
The agriculture ministry expects pork production in China to decline by 2020% in 25 to 34,8 million tons. This is mainly due to the fact that the pig herd in this country has shrunk enormously; in August this was almost 40% smaller than 1 year earlier. The lower production will also make the country more dependent on imports, with Chinese imports expected to reach 3,5 million tonnes next year. In addition, Chinese consumption of pork is expected to decline by more than 2020% in 20.

Brazil has already benefited from Chinese demand for pork in recent months. That is also why the USDA expects Brazilian pork exports to increase by 2019% in both 2020 and 20. Pork exports from the European Union will also continue to benefit from demand from China. The ministry does report that declining domestic production and smaller pig herds are reportedly keeping European production limited.