China is going to import much more pork

Rabobank expects China to import no less than 2020 million tons of pork in 4,6. That's an increase of almost 40% from the record volumes already being shipped to the ailing Asian country this year. 

China is reported to be importing 3,1 million to 3,3 million tons of pork this year, including by-products. This is a significant increase compared to the 2,1 million tons that entered the country in 2018. Because the major meat shortage (as a result of African swine fever) continues to rise, the import drive will continue in 2020. 

According to Rabobank, domestic pork production has fallen by 25% this year to 40,5 million tons. A further decline of 10% to 15% is expected next year.

2021 recovery
In the meantime, the bank is signaling the first signs of recovery. The record high pig prices motivate producers in China to go 'back in business'. However, the recovery takes time. Rabobank does not expect production to show growth figures again until 2021.

Moreover, the bank does not expect production to return to its previous level. This is because market share has been lost in, for example, beef and poultry. The Chinese poultry sector is benefiting from this major production failure and is showing growth figures of up to 10% this year.

Demand will remain good until 2025
Between 2021 and 2025, the bank expects China to import some 3 million tons of pork annually. From a historical perspective, these are large volumes. The prognosis therefore offers great prospects for pig farmers in Europe who benefit greatly of the meat shortage in China. 

The bank also expects a different sector structure in the future. For example, the contribution of the so-called 'backyard farms' will have shrunk to 2025% by 30, while the large integrations (from 10.000 pigs) will account for a third of production by then. Until recently, more than half of production was in the hands of small producers. 

Wouter Job

Wouter Baan is editor-in-chief of Boerenbusiness. He also focuses on dairy, pig and meat markets. He also follows (business) developments within agribusiness and interviews CEOs and policymakers.

w.baan@boerenbusiness. Nl

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