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African swine fever by a hair's breadth in Germany

3 December 2019 - Wouter Baan - 15 comments

The outbreaks of African swine fever in western Poland are moving closer to Germany. Infected dead wild boars have now been found 40 kilometers from the border with Germany, the German ministry announced on Monday, December 2.

It concerns 2 infected wild boars in the Polish district of Nowosolski and 8 infected animals in Zielonogorski. This means that the virus has again made a jump of approximately 30 kilometers. Since the virus is spreading so quickly, an outbreak in Germany is not unlikely. 

African swine fever unexpectedly emerged in November in Western Poland and since then the number of infected cases has been piling up. An outbreak in Germany would be disastrous. It is very likely that important markets such as China, Japan and the Philippines will then announce an import ban on German pork. 

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Wouter Job

Wouter Baan is editor-in-chief of Boerenbusiness. He also focuses on dairy, pig and meat markets. He also follows (business) developments within agribusiness and interviews CEOs and policymakers.
Comments
15 comments
investor 3 December 2019
This is in response to it Boerenbusiness article:
[url=http://www.boerenbusiness.nl/varkens/ artikel/10884890/afrikaanse-varkenpest-op-een-haar-na-in-germany]African swine fever is close to Germany[/url]
Dear All,
I'll give it to you on a note:

THE AFRICAN Swine Fever WILL START THE WORLDWIDE RECESSION AND THE SEEDS WILL BE PLANTED.

China slaughters 200.000.000 pigs and does not yet know whether it is enough..with a rapid price increase as a result and soon possibly grumbling among the population. stop that. How did the Arab Spring start again? correct food price increase.

Soon plague in Germany... Belgium has already got it.
This week I received a movie with a truck full of wild boars being let loose in a forest.
The plague in Belgium was deliberately introduced.
Grain prices are starting to rise and we are already seeing the first signs of inflation picking up....interest follows.....and then we go after 2007/08.

Exciting times, right?
avenue 3 December 2019
Correct Investor, this is no coincidence. It already shows that the prices are dangerously high. The processing industry does not accept those high prices!! The piglet listing committees also know what to expect and transfer as much money as quickly as possible from fattening pig farming to multiplication through the manipulated piglet price that is far too high. Masters have considered it becoming too much of a risk for some time, but they have no input into the listing. Price is not a market price.
avenue 3 December 2019
The meat processing industry is now also silent and you will not hear it anymore..... They know that they will soon be able to turn a profit again.... They solve their problem themselves.
market 3 December 2019
is everything going well?
avenue 3 December 2019
Great market
Subscriber
market 3 December 2019
happy all

but coming back to your comment that the piglet quotation is manipulated, is much too high and is not a market price

what do you think a fattener currently pays for his piglets if he buys them on the (free) market
avenue 3 December 2019
All stables remain empty here and there. Rented some more. And that's where piglets come in at less than the price you have in mind.
market 3 December 2019
why don't you just answer my question?
avenue 3 December 2019
NW +8
market 3 December 2019
ok now i understand you

if you really think that a fattener who buys his piglets on the free market will get the piglets in his pen this week for a 7% surcharge on the BPP price

I would say add 7% to that 27% again
market 3 December 2019
sorry allee was too quick to respond you think BPP plus 19%
avenue 3 December 2019
I thought so, you live outside reality.
farmer harms 4 December 2019
Allee, I don't know if you buy/sell piglets. But "market" is absolutely right. On the free market, large couples already did 3% on BPP 30 weeks ago. This has only increased since then.
Your pricing of € 8,= on NW is also long out of date. Price agreements for the whole of 2019 were already higher, let alone now on the free market.....
In the coming 2 months there will be another € 10,= and if Allee wants to wait with imposing a lower price, you will have the stable empty within 4 months!!
Subscriber
sober 5 December 2019
We can blow high off the tower. Larger profits are often expected by laying very expensive piglets. Do not leave the stables empty, but it is best to put in a few less. If one day Germany will also be hit by the plague, hoping to remain free herself, the cards will be completely different. What will that mean for the NW? So many piglets go to Germany. If you calculate far in advance, you have to adjust it more often. Hoping for a good time for the future but staying realistic. Pride comes.......
Subscriber
market 5 December 2019
I agree with you "sober"

but that wasn't the discussion in itself
What I cared about was that Allee is raving here
with comments like "transfer money/manipulated piglet price/piglet price is not a market price"

if I then ask what according to everyone the current (free) market price is
and that answer with NW plus 8
Then you won't be taken seriously by me anymore

but what will the piglet price do in the near future?
I really would not know
time will tell
You can no longer respond.

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