Analysis Countus Pig Index
Pig indices further up again
The Countus Fattening Pig Index and Countus Piglet Index rose again in November, as a result of which the Piglet Index has also set a record level this year. However, it is expected that both sectors will now face a more stable period.
Over the month of November, the Countus Piglet Index rose by no less than 36,4 points to 178 points, with 100 points being the 10-year average. This sharp increase is made possible by the extremely good demand for piglets, and the export to Germany is also booming. The high demand for piglets is also visible in the DCA BestPigletPrice, because it went up for the twelfth week in a row last week.
The demand for piglets was so great in November that the allowances rose sharply again. It also helps that costs remain stable. This is the price for baby piglet pellets about november remained stable at €34,90 per 100 kilos. In short: the income of sow farmers has increased considerably, while costs have managed to remain relatively stable. As a result, the return on the sow farms has increased significantly.
A more stable period ahead
If we take a look at the forecast of the Countus Piglet Index, it becomes clear that a more stable period (less severe outliers) is ahead. This is supported, among other things, by the fact that the price decrease for chunks of pork has come to an end. In addition, the increases towards the end of the year are always somewhat more moderate unpack. After the holidays, the upward trend may be resumed.
Fattening pig index up again
Not only the Piglets Index, but also the Countus Fattening Pigs Index will rise further this month. Over the month of November, this Index rose by 9,7 points to 193,2 points, with 100 points being the long-term average. Various traders report large slaughter numbers, given that the demand for pork is still strong. This is partly due to the fact that we are now working towards the traditional Christmas peak.
Demand is expected to remain strong in the coming 2 to 3 weeks, but a weakening is expected after that. This is also visible in the forecast of the Countus Fattening Pigs Index, which foresees a more stable period in the short term. This is, for example, because the prices for chunks of pork are rising again. It remains to be seen whether the January dip will return this season.
Kimberly Baker
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