Britons will produce more pork in 2020

Research body AHDB expects British pork production to continue to increase in the coming months. In 2020, it predicts a 2% increase in the number of slaughters. However, pork production is expected to increase slightly faster during this period, due to the small increase in slaughter weight. Also in The Netherlands slaughter weights have been higher in recent months than in previous years.

AHDB Pork expects that the positives will only be visible in the second half of the year. This is because limited supply is expected for the beginning of the year due to low productivity in the warm summer of 2018 and 2019. "Inventory may recover slightly in 2020, but will remain historically low," writes Bethan Wilkin , senior analyst at AHDB Pork, in the press release.

African swine fever
Although the UK pig farming and meat sector has faced challenging conditions this year (such as drought and heat), exports from the country have increased somewhat in 2019. This is due to very good demand from China and the weaker British pound. According to AHDB data, the prospects for 2020 remain good as long as the African swine fever crisis (particularly in Asia) continues.

Expectations for imports are slightly less positive. Since spring the European pig prices well above that in the UK, causing imports to fall sharply last year (-9%). After all, British meat products are losing competitiveness. If the price in the country can rise to 'more normal levels', AHDB predicts a limited recovery in these figures.

The sharp drop in imports also means that stocks for consumption on the domestic market are considerably lower than last year, although demand is also lower. This limits the upward pressure on pig prices. "Domestic market demand is currently in stark contrast to the export market. This may help support prices, but could also further short-circuit the UK market," Wilkin said.