Chinese pig herd crawls out of deep trough

China reports the progress of its pig herd every month. Last month the government said that the decline in the number of pigs had stopped and a slight increase has now been announced. For example, the pig herd grew by 2% in November compared to October. It is the first increase in 1 year. The number of breeding sows even grew by 4%. Exact animal numbers are not mentioned.

Chinese statistics
The growth figures reported by China suggest that the deforestation in the pig sector (due to the outbreak of African swine fever) has stopped. However, a comment must be made here; it concerns Chinese statistics. These figures are sometimes taken with a grain of salt in the West, because it is suspected that the figures are sometimes manipulated. 

The pig supply in China is still extremely scarce. This makes sense, because there are still major gaps to be closed. This is because the pig herd has almost halved in the past 12 months. Without headwinds, recovery is said to take at least 3 to 5 years.

Stable Chinese pork price
After Chinese pork prices were significantly depreciated in November, prices are currently moving mainly sideways. The average pig price in China moves between 33 yuan and 34 yuan per kilo of live weight. At current exchange rates this is approximately €4,50 per kilo.

The export of European pork to China has slowed down somewhat in recent weeks, according to slaughterhouses such as Vion, Van Rooi, Tönnies and Danish Crown. At the same time, this is no reason to panic, because Chinese demand is likely to pick up again in the course of next year.