Inside Pigs
Chinese pig herd is growing surprisingly fast
The number of pigs in China is increasing surprisingly fast, if we are to believe the figures from the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture. The number of breeding sows also writes growth figures.
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According to official Chinese state figures, the pig herd was 14,1% higher in December than the previous month. This means that the pig herd is showing growth figures for the second month in a row. In November there was only slight growth, of just over 2%. Exact animal numbers are not disclosed.
Assuming that the Chinese pig herd will amount to approximately 250 million pigs after the (almost) halving in August, the percentage increase in December indicates a growth of approximately 35 million pigs. The reliability of Chinese statistics is regularly questioned in the West and these figures provide reason for this. Such an increase in just 1 month is quite a lot.
The sow herd is also growing
The breeding sow herd also recorded growth figures in December, for the third month in a row. According to the ministry, the increase was 2,2%. This is lower than the 4% reported in November. The growth is reportedly mainly achieved through major integrations in China. Fueled by good pig prices, they are doing everything they can to increase production.
Meanwhile, the pork market in China is working towards the peak demand around the Chinese New Year celebration scheduled for Saturday, January 26. The ministry estimates that the supply of pork will be sufficient around that time, partly due to the growth of the pig herd in December. It is claimed that slaughter weights are high today, which improves the availability of meat.
China uses meat reserves
China has also released 50.000 tons of pork from state reserves since early January. Nevertheless, pork prices in China have been on the rise since the start of 2020. The average pig price (January 8) is 36.07 yuan per kilo live weight. This equates to €4,67. Prices in China are expected to continue to rise until the New Year. Historically, the market slows down afterwards.
The ministry's objective is to have pig production back to its previous level by mid-2021. The growth figures in December indicate that China is on the right track to achieve this target. At the same time there are doubts to what extent the breeding material is available to achieve further growth. It is also uncertain whether China has the outbreaks of African swine fever under control at all. In short, there are still many question marks.