Analysis Countus pig index
Return on pig farmer loses ground
The falling pig and piglet prices at the beginning of this year have an impact on the Countus pig index. In the somewhat longer term, the indexes may recover somewhat.
The pig index has fallen significantly since mid-December. In a matter of weeks, the index fell by no less than 54 points to 137 points (week ). Here, 100 points is the 5-year average. The decrease is a direct result of the pig prices that are under pressure. After the quotations at many slaughterhouses had risen to record high levels in the second half of last year, the situation came to a head at the end of December.
Fear of AVP
The pig plug around Christmas and New Year first of all led to price pressure. Meat sales are not going well at the beginning of 2020. Chinese demand has fallen somewhat, while sales within Europe are traditionally at a lower level at this time of the year. In addition, German slaughterhouses are reluctant to freeze meat stocks and that attitude does not promote pig prices.
They fear loss of value if African swine fever is detected within Germany's land borders. There is every reason to do so, since the virus was diagnosed in western Poland just 20 kilometers from Germany.
Piglet index also down
Piglet prices are also under pressure, but less extreme than the pig price. The Countus piglet index has therefore lost ground in recent weeks, falling from 198 to 179 points. Despite the lower pig price, there is no immediate reason for significantly lower piglet prices. The DCA BestPigletPrice is on the rise again this week.
The Index forecast foresees room for a slight recovery until mid-June. The falling fattening pig index will probably linger until February, after which it may recover somewhat.
Click here for more charts.
Wouter Job
© DCA Market Intelligence. This market information is subject to copyright. It is not permitted to reproduce, distribute, disseminate or make the content available to third parties for compensation, in any form, without the express written permission of DCA Market Intelligence.