Pig production cannot compete with meat shortage

This forecast represents the forecast made by the USDA in October 2019 slightly refined. It was also indicated that production in 2020 would decrease by 10% to 95,2 million tons. The reason for adjustment lies in the slight increase in production of 4% in China. This is due to the combination of heavier pigs and a small increase in slaughter figures.

Production lags behind
However, Chinese production in 2020 is expected to remain almost a quarter below 2019 production. Production in 2019 was already 14% lower than in 2018. Although the US, Canada and Brazil, among others, are significantly increasing their production, the other countries are not to cope with the meat shortage. Not very surprising, since the Chinese pig herd has fallen by about 41% and China is not self-sufficient even with its 'normal' production. The USDA expects that import demand in China will also increase in 2020, by 3,7 million tons (42%) compared to 2019.

Although the European Union has so far benefited from the enormous Chinese meat demand, it remains to be seen how long this will continue in 2020. The danger of an ASF outbreak is also lurking for the EU. This has everything to do with the outbreaks in western Poland, on the border with Germany. If these outbreaks manage to spread to countries with large pig production such as Germany (or the Netherlands), the flag will undoubtedly be different.