Why China fears 'new' meat shortage

The aftermath of the African swine fever - which is still not completely under control - will continue for the time being. In the first quarter, the country produced 10,3 million tons of pork, a decrease of almost 30%, according to its own statistics. The number of slaughters fell in the same order of magnitude to 131 million. Unprecedented numbers by European standards.

In addition, pork imports have (possibly) fallen due to the corona crisis. Because official statistics for the past few months are still missing, it is difficult to estimate the extent of this.

Meat consumption is rising again
The pig herd in China has been showing growth figures again for a number of months. In March, according to Chinese statistics, the sow herd increased by 2,8% and the number of piglets increased by 7,3%. Exact animal numbers are not mentioned. The measures taken by China to boost production are apparently paying off.

However, the growth is not enough to curb pig prices, the Ministry of Agriculture believes. This is because pork consumption is likely to rise faster than production, Yang Zhenhai, a top official at the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture, told Reuters news agency. It is therefore expected that the pig price will pick up again after a slowly downward trend since March. The ministry expects a price peak in September. Converted, the average Chinese pig price closed today (April 21) at €4,31 per kilo, live weight. At the end of February the price was briefly below €5. 

Due to the increasing meat shortage, China expects its pork imports to rise to 2,8 million tons this year, an increase of 33% compared to the record year 2019. This development offers opportunities for European pork exporters who are forced to rely on their own due to the lockdowns. continent could use some additional sales opportunities.

Fierce American competition
However, American competition is fiercer than ever. Public life has also come to a standstill in the US, which is putting a brake on meat consumption. American exporters also have a price advantage. The pork price has plummeted to the lowest level since 2002. The Iowa/Minnesota price is a paltry $0,71 per kilo in mid-April. European meat companies such as Vion and Tönnies have been 'complaining' for a few weeks about fierce American competition in the Chinese market.