Brussels: meat consumption is on a downward trend

The European Commission expects pork production to increase in 2020. This is in contrast to the production of other types of meat. Meat consumption is expected to fall, but exports continue to increase.

In its short-term outlook, the European Commission says it expects European pork production to increase by 0,5%. Beef production is expected to decline by 1,7%, poultry production will remain stable at 2% and sheep and goat are forecast to decline by 1,5%.

pork production
In the first quarter of 2020, European pork production has declined marginally, with a decrease of 0,5%. Production is expected to recover and growth of 0,5% over the whole of 2020 is expected. This growth will be supported by the resumption of consumer demand after it fell due to the corona crisis. The positive export prospects to China are also helping.

Meat consumption
The European Commission expects annual average meat consumption to fall in 2020. It is estimated that this will amount to 65,4 kilos per capita, a decrease of 2,5%. This forecast is based on declining consumer demand during the lockdown, resulting in subdued domestic availability. Pork consumption is expected to fall below the 30 kilogram mark per capita this year.

Meat export
European meat exports will increase further in 2020, mainly due to strong pork exports. The driving force here is the export options to China, by far the largest buyer of European pork. Earlier it was announced that European pork exports are again this year increased.

Given that China is still struggling with outbreaks of African swine fever (ASF), experts do not expect the country to recover its domestic pig population any time soon. In fact, they even expect that the country will experience a drop of another 15% to 25% in its pork production and therefore will need more pork from Europe.

Chanti Oussoren

Editor at Boerenbusiness who studies the dairy, pig (meat) and feed markets.

c.oussoren@boerenbusiness. Nl

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