News Pigs
FAO: Chinese pig herd will recover within 5 years
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) expects global pork production to grow significantly over the next 10 years. China will have its domestic production back to normal within 5 years, the organization predicts.
The FAO estimates that global pork production will increase by 10% over the next 16 years. This growth is largely due to an expected recovery of the pig population in Asian countries, which stems from the African swine fever (ASF) coming under control. A production increase is also expected in Brazil and the United States. In contrast, a decline is expected in Europe.
China
China is expected to bring the virus under control in the next 5 to 6 years and the domestic pig population has recovered by then. Pork production will then return to 2017 levels, the year before the country was hit by ASF.
Chinese pork imports will not fall back to 2017 levels, but will be lower than at their peak in 2019. The FAO predicts that China will import about 2029% less pork in 36 than in 2019. This will also have an impact on pig prices. The organization estimates that prices will remain high for the next 10 years, but will decrease compared to the high price levels of 2019.
African swine fever
The projected growth of global pork production is entirely dependent on controlling ASF outbreaks. Only then will the pig population in Asian countries be able to recover.
South Korea is considering allowing pig farms affected by ASF last year to resume operations this year. However, there are still slight doubts to give the green light due to concerns about the possible transmission of the virus via wild boars. Last week, 677 wild boars were detected there carrying the virus.
Infection among wild boars
Wild boars are a major threat to the spread of the deadly virus. The number of infections among wild boars in Europe is already significantly higher this year than last year. According to the Animal Disease Notification System in the European Union (ADNS), 7.144 cases of infection of wild boars have been reported as of early July this year. Last year the number was 6.396 cases for the entire year.
The highest number of cases of infection so far has been in Hungary where 3.005 infected wild boars have been detected. In Poland, 2.793 cases have been reported and in Romania the number is 550 infections.
Chanti Oussoren
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