Rabo relies on Chinese resumption of pig imports

It is likely that China will agree to the German proposal not to apply the export ban nationally, but only to the ASF-affected areas. Rabobank reports this. 

Shortly after the discovery of ASF in Germany, in a wild boar in the state of Brandenburg, many countries stopped importing German pork. The Asian sales markets China, Japan and South Korea, among others, did this. In Germany, heavily lobbied to convert this nationwide ban into the regional export ban. This would avert the economic noose for the pig sector.

Consent probably
In a scenario analysis, the bank writes that it is likely that non-European importers will agree to the deal when the zones for affected areas in Germany are set up. It is not stated when this will happen. The size of the German pig sector (after Spain the largest European exporter) makes it plausible that importing countries are taking a more lenient attitude than they did before during ASF outbreaks in Poland and Belgium. There are national export bans.

Wouter Job

Wouter Baan is Head of Meat & Dairy at BoerenbusinessAt DCA Market Intelligence, he focuses on dairy, pork, and meat markets. He also monitors (business) developments within agribusiness and interviews CEOs and policymakers.

w.baan@boerenbusiness. Nl

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