What does German export ban do to the Chinese market?

Because China has been struggling with ASF outbreaks for a long time and as a result domestic pork production is falling short, a lot of pork is usually imported. This year, import volumes even reached new records. In the month of July, no less than 400.000 tons of pork were imported, the highest level ever.

In the month of August, the import volume was still very high but, the record pace was not continued. China is aiming to restore the domestic pig herd. Existing companies are scaling up production and many new companies are being started up. The number of pigs in China increases quickly, in one year the number of pigs has increased by 31,3%.

European pork
In the first half of 2020, European pork exports have grown and China's share has increased again. Whether the growth will continue in the coming months is uncertain, because Germany has lost its international export license now that it has lost its AVP-free status. Germany is one of the largest pork exporters in Europe, so other outlets must now be found for these volumes.

Rib volumes fall back
The fact that China no longer imports German pork is not positive for the Chinese market either. The prices of ribs in the food service have reportedly gone up since the export ban. Most of the imported (frozen) pork in China goes to the food service. Consumers prefer to buy local and fresh meat in the supermarket.

According to the director of the Meat International Group consultancy firm, Liu Xiaofeng, the increase in the price of pork ribs is due to the fact that Germany is a major supplier of ribs and less volume is now available. In May, nearly 20.000 tons of ribs went to China.

The largest supplier of pork to China, the United States, cannot replenish Chinese stocks in the short term because a lot of ribs are also consumed there domestically. It is quite possible that Spain will fill the gap in the market. Unlike other countries, Spain has not had to close slaughterhouses during the corona crisis.