Interview Matz Beuchel
'Risk of ASF spreading to West Germany small'
Rabobank expects China to reopen the border for German pork. Matz Beuchel, analyst at the RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness team, talks with Boerenbusiness delve deeper into the matter.
There is a lot of uncertainty surrounding the African swine fever (ASF) outbreak in Germany. It remains to be seen how the situation will develop, but Beuchel expects that the swine disease will not spread outside the German state of Brandenburg and that China will eventually agree to export via the regionalization principle.
To what extent is the current ASF outbreak disrupting the global pork market?
"There is no real disruption in the global pork market yet. There is a lot of uncertainty. The size of German pork exports is much larger than that of other European countries that previously suffered from ASF outbreaks. We have to look at how the situation is developing and how effective the measures will be. I do not expect ASF to spread further through Germany. In principle, the risk of ASF in the Netherlands is just as great as in other parts of Germany, because when spreading, humans also have a role, such as travel and transport movements."
Rabobank expects China to reopen the border to German pork. What is this expectation based on?
"This is mainly based on the high needs for pork in China and the high volumes that Germany exports. The size of the German pig sector makes it likely that China will take a more lenient attitude than it did when Belgium was hit by ASF. AVP, the Chinese border was closed for Belgian pork, this concerned smaller volumes of pork and China could therefore miss it earlier.As Germany exports much larger volumes, we expect that they will be more willing to come to a regionalization agreement, in which not affected regions can export. It is impossible to predict when the Chinese border will open again for German pork."
To what extent can other countries benefit from the German export freeze?
"Within Europe, Spain will benefit most from filling up the volumes that Germany can no longer export. The situation is different for the Netherlands, because the export opportunities to Germany are now stagnating. The United States and Brazil will probably receive most of the increased to fill Chinese needs."
"For Germany, the biggest sales problem is now mainly in the export of by-products. They mainly went to China and their sales are now completely disappearing. An alternative market must be found for those products. The pet food sector, such as dog food, for example, may provide relief."
China is currently importing large volumes of pork. Will China continue to do this in the coming years, given that the number of pigs there is increasing again?
"China will undoubtedly continue to import large volumes of pork, but this year's record high import volumes will not last. Next year, China will certainly import less pork than this year, as the country wants to further expand its own pork production."
What do you expect for pig prices in the coming months?
"That is actually impossible to estimate given the volatility of the situation. We could compare the situation with the outbreak in Belgium at the time, but because the German market is much larger, the impact on pig prices could also turn out differently. has of course already started and prices now seem to stabilize at a lower level than other European countries."
Chanti Oussoren
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