China does not want to produce pork entirely itself

After the African swine fever (ASF) destroyed a large part of the Chinese pig herd, large quantities of pork are being imported into China. This year, China's import figures reached even new records. China is now busy recovering its domestic pig herd and pork imports therefore dropped somewhat in August.

Oversupply of chickens
That China is recovering its domestic pig herd and the number of pigs in July has increased considerably, is also reflected in poultry prices. Because pork became very expensive in China after ASF caused the domestic supply to shrink, consumers partly switched to consuming chicken meat. 

Now that domestic pork production is recovering, there is more chicken meat left over, resulting in an oversupply of chickens. In recent months, poultry meat prices have fallen by as much as 25%.

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has also upgraded its forecast for Chinese imports of soybeans and corn, as China aims to grow its pig herd.

Not complete self-sufficiency
A new plan by Chinese officials describes a need to increase the self-sufficiency rate of animal production. The aim is not complete self-sufficiency in pork production, but a self-sufficiency rate of 95% is set.

The fact that China does not want to become completely self-sufficient is positive for European exports. Naturally, export volumes will fall as China further increases production. This will not be the case in the short term. There remains an import demand, because the country does not want to become completely self-sufficient in pork.