EU pork production stagnates due to ASF

European pork production growth will stagnate in 2020, according to a recent report from the European Commission. Total production is expected to show a decline in 2020.

Over the first half of the year, pork production in Europe decreased by 0,9% compared to the same period last year. This was due to the corona crisis, which resulted in declining sales and a lower slaughter capacity. With the reopening of the catering industry and the recovery of slaughter capacity, production has increased again in recent months, but production for the whole of 2020 is still expected to be lower than expected.

This reduced prognosis is based on the recent outbreaks of African swine fever (ASF) in Germany. This has led to export bans and, given the size of the German market, has a major impact on the European pig market. The effect of ASF on European production is expected to continue in the coming years. In its report, the European Commission assumes a production decrease of 2020% in 0,5 and a decrease of 2021% in 1. Consumption is also expected to fall, forecasting a 1,1% decline to 32,8 kilograms per capita in 2020.

Export
Expectations for European exports have also been revised downwards. In the first half of the year, exports increased by more than 15%. Exports to China and Vietnam doubled. Now that Germany has lost its international export license as a result of the ASF outbreak, the forecast for the whole of 2020 has been revised downwards. The European Commission takes into account an annual growth of 2%.

Chanti Oussoren

Editor at Boerenbusiness who studies the dairy, pig (meat) and feed markets.

c.oussoren@boerenbusiness. Nl

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