Brussels foresees a sharp drop in pork exports

The European Union is forecasting a 2021% decline in pork exports for 10. This is apparent from the European Commission's autumn report on developments in the agricultural markets.

The significantly lower estimate for the export of European pork in 2021 is partly due to the outbreak of African swine fever in East Germany. The growing Chinese pig population and the production of pork in 2021 also contribute to the reduced export. In addition, the consumption pattern in China is shifting. Due to the problems with African swine fever in pig farming in recent years, the Chinese pig herd has been cleaned up.

Opportunities through regionalization
Much will depend on the effectiveness with which Germany manages to fight the ASF outbreak. Just as important is the willingness of trading partners to accept regionalization of the European pig market, writes the EU directorate of the European Commission. As a result, Spain, Denmark and the Netherlands may be able to partly take over the lost German pork export.

Over the whole of 2020, pork exports will grow by 2% compared to last year. The contrast between the first and second half of the year is great. The effect of the African swine fever outbreak in East Germany remains limited because in the first half of 2020, an extra 15% was exported, compared to the same period last year. This was due to increased demand from the Philippines and the United States, as well as unprecedented export volumes to China. 

No rapid shrinkage in production
The agri-directorate of the European Commission does not yet assume a rapid contraction in European pork production. EU production decreased by 2020% in the first half of 0,9. Volume decreased in Germany, France, Italy and Poland, but pork production increased in the first half of 2020 in Denmark and Spain. These countries have expanded their pig herds. This was also the case in Ireland.

Total EU pork production picked up again in the third quarter, reflecting favorable prices, the return of consumer demand after the corona pandemic and the return on investment. A 2021% increase in pork consumption in the European Union is expected in 1. Over the whole of 2020, consumption in the EU is likely to fall by 1%. On average, more than 30 kilograms of meat per year is consumed in the European Union per capita.

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