Chinese pig price is slowing down considerably

China, the world's largest producer of pigs and pork, saw pork production fall to the lowest level in 16 years last year due to African swine fever (ASF) that has been spreading through the country since 2018.

Previous figures from the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture already showed that the number of pigs will recover this year, as well as the number of pig farms. The figures for October have now also been released and show that the Chinese pig herd has grown by 26,9% compared to last year. The sow herd achieved a growth of no less than 31,5%.

Price drop
As domestic supply increases, Chinese pork prices are falling. In October, pork prices fell by 2,8% compared to last year. Earlier this year, prices rose sharply, but the increase has already started to decrease in recent months. The most recent quotation of the Chinese pig price (November 4) amounted to €3,82 per kilo. That is still considerably higher than pig prices in Europe, but a lot lower than the Chinese price at the beginning of September. At the time, the price level there was still more than €4,50 per kilo.

Imports remain at the same level this year
Chinese analysts expect further price declines in the last quarter of 2020. At the same time, they predict that pork imports and the release of state reserves will continue to increase until the end of this year. Over the first 3 quarters of the year, pork imports more than doubled compared to last year.

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates that Chinese pork imports will decline by 2021% in 6 due to the recovery of the domestic pig herd. According to the forecast, Chinese pork production will grow by 9%, but this still means production is 25% lower than before the ASF outbreak in the country. Whether this prediction comes true depends entirely on the extent to which China manages to keep the ASF outbreaks in the country under control, as outbreaks are still being reported.