Many more pigs in China, how does meat import react?

The Chinese pig herd has been busy recovering in recent months after ASF significantly thinned the pig herd. The sow herd has grown by about 12 million heads in the past 7 months, according to data from the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. In October this year, there were about 26 million breeding sows in China.

For comparison, last year in October the sow herd numbered approximately 19 million. The entire pig herd was about 26,9% higher than last year. The number has not yet recovered to pre-AVP levels. According to the figures, there were more than 30 million breeding sows when ASF first entered the country, the current sow herd is still 13% below that level.

Without complete recovery, higher production may still be possible
According to analysts from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB), the fact that the current sow herd is still below the level of about 2 years ago is no reason not to match pork production. This has to do with the drastic innovations in Chinese pig farming that have been introduced as a result of the African swine fever. Thanks to higher productivity and biosecurity, more pork can be produced than before.

Meat imports
According to the latest forecast from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Chinese pork production will grow by 2021% in 9. "If this expectation comes true, Chinese pork imports will fall by 2021% to around 6 million tons in 4,5. However, this says nothing about the country's current pork imports, which are still significantly higher than last year. In the first 10 months of the year, imports increased by no less than 126,2% to 3,62 million tons.

When looking at just the month of October, approximately 330.000 tons of pork were imported, an increase of 80,4% compared to the same period last year. However, imports are about 50.000 tons below the September level. Experts believe that China is currently importing more pork than necessary to build up supplies for the winter season and until local production fully recovers. This is in line with the Chinese food strategy, because milk powder and wheat are also being hoarded. 

Pig price down 
Partly due to rising domestic production, pig prices in China are showing a downward trend for the first time since the start of the African swine fever crisis, ABN Amro also notes. Nevertheless, pork prices are still twice as high as in 2. This price drop is also due to the release of large quantities of frozen stocks. 

Since September, China has cut back on its pork suppliers. This has everything to do with the ASF outbreak in Germany. As a result, Germany is no longer allowed to export pork to China. China usually imports large quantities of German pork and the country now has to obtain these volumes elsewhere. To compensate for this loss, pork imports from Brazil, the United States, Canada and Spain have been increased.

Genesus expects higher consumption
Sales director Lyle Jones, of Canadian pig genetics company Genesus in China, expects the faster-than-expected recovery of Chinese pork production to continue next year at a similar pace to recent months. 

Despite the rapid recovery, Genesus is positive about the Chinese pork market. There is another trend at play: the population of billions is moving from the countryside to the city. Chinese city dwellers consume 30% more pork than rural residents. Although Chinese pork production will return to 2018 levels faster than expected, pork consumption is also expected to rise rapidly in the coming years.