Pork imports to China plummet in 2021

Pan Chenjun, a Chinese analyst at Rabobank, thinks the import volume will be around 3,5 million tons next year. This year, the import volume is likely to exceed the 5 million tons mark.

The sharp fall has major consequences for the export volumes of European countries, the United States and Brazil in particular, which rely heavily on the Chinese market in terms of exports (and therefore also in terms of price formation). Although the bank's forecast is gloomy, it is more positive than China's own forecast. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce expects the import volume to fall to 2020 million tons by 3. China is also likely to import less poultry meat. 

Pig stock back to old level 
The first signs of declining import volumes are already visible. In October, China imported the lowest volumes of pork since February. The decrease is partly due to the fact that Chinese authorities have set up large-scale testing procedures for the discovery of the corona virus imported meat. This slows down the flow.

Meanwhile, China's pig herd is growing rapidly after nearly halving due to a large-scale outbreak of African swine fever. Pan expects production to return to its old level around 2023 or 2024. For next year, the analyst foresees a growth of 10%, provided AVP does not rear its head again. High piglet and pig prices in China have fueled growth for both large and small producers.