China very optimistic about pig herd recovery

The growth figures were released to the world by Chinese state media this week and came from the Ministry of Agriculture. The recovery is due to government subsidy measures for pig farmers, which have been used to build new stables.

Inflated figures?
Although the Chinese pig herd is indeed growing, the Chinese forecasts deserve a comment. Aren't these far too optimistic? In that case, the number of pigs would have increased by approximately 1,5 million in the past 100 years, assuming that China had approximately 450 million pigs before ASF. Previous forecasts indicated that it could take until 2025 for the number of pigs to return to pre-ASF outbreak levels. Here and there there are serious doubts whether China is not inflating the figures to reduce the price of pork.  

Pig price up
In any case, the increase in production is not reflected in Chinese pig prices. They are still trading considerably higher than usual. In November, the Chinese pork price rose again, driven by increasing meat demand in the run-up to the Chinese New Year, which is celebrated in mid-February.

The pig price rose by about 10% in recent weeks to 32,55 yuan per kilo (live weight) on December 9. This equates to more than €4. Such high prices indicate a major shortage of fattening pigs.

Rabobank estimate
Although Chinese production figures are optimistic, it looks like pork imports will drop significantly next year. The Rabobank takes this into account with a decrease of 30%, which would bring the import volume to around 3 million tons. Although export opportunities for European exporters are shrinking, according to Rabobank export volumes are still significantly higher than before the outbreak of ASF.