'2020 lost year for pig farmers'

How do you look back on 2020?
"Expectations were good at the start of the year, but the corona pandemic and the African swine fever outbreak in Germany put a line through the bill. In January, prices were proverbially still in the attic, but we are in the basement for the year." It was therefore a lost year for the sector. Such a large price drop in the pig market, but also the piglet market in particular, has never happened before. The price drop is clearly reflected in the income estimate published by WUR for 2020 this week. The fact that the average income in pig farming has fallen by no less than €295.000 per unpaid annual work unit speaks volumes."

Can a price recovery occur in the short term?
"I don't expect it in the short term. Many pigs have been slaughtered in the Netherlands in recent months, but there are about 700.000 fattening pigs hanging above the market in Germany. You can't just slaughter them. This oversupply still has a positive effect in a certain sense. also, because otherwise the meat market would have been even more saturated. Sufficient slaughter capacity remains a challenge. At Christmas, slaughterhouse staff often go back to their home front in Eastern Europe, but it remains to be seen whether they (can) come back because of corona If this is not the case, slaughterhouses will have a major challenge to find staff in 2021 and this may slow down the slaughter process even more. In short: the German Schweinestau could well be an obstacle to price recovery on the market until the summer. can not go to China and therefore enter the European market."

How urgent is that?
"Pretty urgent. The EU produces 23 million tons of pork annually, of which 5 million tons come from Germany. An estimated one million tons of German meat enters the European meat market that would otherwise have been exported to non-European destinations, especially China. The hope is now that China will regionalize the German market, allowing the states that are free from ASF to export again. I do not expect China to do this. Over the past few months, China has shown that it can manage without the German supply, even in the run-up to the Chinese New Year. And there are still ASF outbreaks in our eastern neighbors. China requires a country to be free from ASF outbreaks for at least 1 year before the export ban is lifted. We have also seen this in Belgium, which was in the same boat. "

Germany is now considering building private meat stocks to support the market, is this a good idea?
"These measures can slow down a price fall, but the pig prices are already very low at the moment. In addition, the stored meat stocks will probably come back on the market within 6 months and prices will probably not have recovered yet. The past has shown that this measure is limited. And you can also ask yourself whether the price advantage actually ends up with the primary producers, for which the measure is intended. In other words: I am not enthusiastic about this measure, although I can understand it as a political statement."

The high prices of recent years were mainly due to the skyrocketing imports of pork from China. What do you expect from the export volumes in 2021?
"The Chinese demand remains, although the export volumes will probably decline significantly. The Chinese pig herd is growing again after the clear-cut 2 years ago and the degree of self-sufficiency is increasing. I do have doubts about the speed of recovery outlined by China. Rome is not built in 1 day, the recovery of the Chinese pig herd also takes time. The increase in animal numbers can be seen from the high soy price. At the same time, the Chinese pig price converted is still around €4 per kilo, live weight. This indicates that there are There is still a large shortage of meat. There are projections that production in China will be back to level in 2024. That moment may come a little earlier, but that will not be the case next year."

"The Chinese pig sector faces quite a few challenges. Take, for example, the availability of breeding material and feed raw materials. And the pig flats built are a risk in the event of a disease outbreak. It also took Russia 10 years to grow towards self-sufficiency. In short: the recovery of production in China will come in fits and starts, thus perpetuating volatility in the global market.It may be very tempting for the Dutch pig sector to take advantage of this, but ultimately we cannot rely on sales in China. production standards (efficiency and biosecurity) are also becoming common in China and Russia. In terms of cost price, we will not beat these superpowers in the long term, so the Dutch sector must excel in quality and product experience. move towards."