Inside Pigs
Chinese slaughter figure less negative than expected
The pig slaughter figures in China fell much less sharply last year than previously thought by Rabobank, among others. After a blow to the African swine fever, the number of pigs in China is on the rise again and that growth is likely to continue in 2021. At the same time, meat consumption is also increasing.
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Last year, 527,04 million pigs were slaughtered in China, according to figures from the Chinese government's statistics service. This is a decrease of 3,2% compared to 2019. Pork production fell by 3,3% to 41,13 million tons compared to 2019. In that year, production fell by more than 20% compared to years earlier, this was due to the outbreaks of African swine fever in the Asian country, which was disastrous for the pig herd.
Decrease less significant
Although slaughter figures were lower last year, the decline was much smaller than expected. Rabobank analyst Pan Chenjun expected a decline of 10 to 15% in November. Other analysts also expected higher declines than the official statistics now indicate.
Production increased significantly, especially in the fourth quarter. Meat production then amounted to 13 million tons, compared to 10,74 in 2019 and 8,4 million tons in 2018. This increase confirms that the pig herd is on the rise again. At the end of 2020, China reported a pig herd of 406,5 million animals, up from 370 million a year earlier.
USDA predicts growth
The US Department of Agriculture expects Chinese pork production to increase 14% this year to 43,5 million tons. Consumption growth is estimated at 11% to 47.9 million tons. This means that the import requirement decreases by about 10% to 4,6 million tons. This estimate is less negative than Rabobank previously made, which they assumed at the end of last year import decrease of 30%.
Shortly after New Year's Eve, the average Chinese pig price fell on a dip, the price then dropped below 36 yuan per kilo (live weight). In the meantime, prices are back above that. With the celebration of the Chinese New Year (February 12) ahead, a major price drop is not likely. It will then become clear to what extent the high prices will continue. Converted, pig prices in China are still above €4,50.