How long will China continue to hoard pork?

Due to the many outbreaks of African swine fever, pork production in China fell significantly in 2019. In 2018, the country produced more than 54 million tons of pork, which is the same as in previous years. For calendar year 2019, the production figure fell far short of 50 million tons, according to the official figures.

China has now started rebuilding its pig herd and the first results appear to exceed international expectations. It ensures that the forecasts for this year are somewhat more positive. The latest report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects pork production of 43,5 million tons. An increase of 14% compared to last year.

Import breaks records
After pork production in China fell sharply, there was no immediate demand on the world market. As a result of African swine fever, Chinese consumers had become wary of eating pork. As the year progressed, that fear and China increasingly entered the import market. Last year, pork imports (including offal) rose to a new record of 5,57 million tonnes. That is 85% more than in the previous year.

Converted into dollars, this amounts to an import value of $14,56 billion, an increase of 128% compared to calendar year 2019. Frozen pork was particularly popular, with a volume growth of more than 90%. Spain and the United States in particular benefited from the fallout in China. Shipments to these countries increased by more than 50%. The United Kingdom also exported almost 50% more to China. Dutch pork exporters saw an increase of 34% last year.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) expects that the increase in domestic production will reduce the demand for pork from other countries. For 2021, the Ministry of Agriculture expects a decrease of 10% to approximately 4,6 million tons (excluding offal). Yet this is historically high, which creates some optimism in the market. In 2019, the import figure was 3,5 million tons and in previous years this often did not exceed 1,5 million tons.

How quickly will China disappear from the market?
For many pork exporters, the key question is of course how long it will take before China disappears from the world stage again. Analysts say that could take some time. Although the pig herd is building up well, there are still a number of hurdles to overcome. For example, repopulation has been carried out with sows that are not intended for breeding, which has led to lower productivity.

New variants of African swine fever have also been found that do not kill pigs, but can reduce the number of piglets per litter. Therefore, safety measures will remain crucial in the Chinese pig market in 2021 to prevent the number of outbreaks from increasing again as the pig herd grows.