Significant decline expected in EU pork exports

European pork production and exports will decline this year, the European Commission expects. The decrease is based on German export restrictions and the expected declining Chinese import demand.

The European Commission (EC) expects demand for European pork to decline in the short term, according to the EC's long-term forecasts. According to the European Commission, total pork production in Europe in 2021 will amount to approximately 22,7 million tons. Compared to last year's production, about 22,9 million tons, this is a decrease of almost 0,9%. Production already declined in 2020, partly due to the corona crisis and African swine fever (ASF) in Germany.

European pork exports are estimated at 3,9 million tons for this year. Last year, 4,3 million tons were exported and this is expected to decrease exports by 9,3%.

Chinese imports
The expected decrease in pork production and export is based on the Chinese import requirement. China, the world's largest pork producer, has increased its pork imports significantly as the African swine fever devastated much of the domestic pig population. Meanwhile, the country is busy with the recovery of the domestic pig population. When Chinese pork production increases again, import needs will fall and because China is the main destination for European pork, this will have a major impact.

Export Restrictions
The situation in Germany also contributes to the European Commission's forecast. Since ASF has been found in wild boars, international export restrictions have been imposed and as a result Germany is currently unable to export pork to China. Partly as a result of this, significantly fewer pigs were slaughtered last year and even reached the lowest level since 2007. In 2019, Germany was still the main European pork producer with a share of 23%, followed by Spain with a share of 20%.

In the past year, it was mainly Spain in Europe that increased exports to China. Pork exports doubled in the first 6 months, and AVP in Germany has further expanded Spanish export opportunities to China. Over the whole of 2020, no less than 111% more pork was exported than in 2019.

Chanti Oussoren

Editor at Boerenbusiness who studies the dairy, pig (meat) and feed markets.

c.oussoren@boerenbusiness. Nl

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