Inside Pigs
Chinese piglet price rises as sow herd grows
Mutations of African swine fever (ASF), likely caused by illegal vaccines, threaten the recovery of China's pig population. While piglet prices have risen sharply in recent times. The sow herd performed better than expected. How are the perspectives?
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Chinese pig and piglet prices have risen sharply as ASF entered the country. The country is still struggling with the deadly swine virus and new strains of the virus have recently been discovered. These probably arose through illegal vaccines. China forecast a steady recovery in its pig herd this year, but industry analysts said the new virus outbreaks are now throwing a spanner in the works.
For example, an analyst from Rabobank already adjusted his expectation for the growth of Chinese pork production from 10% to 15% to 8% to 10%. The bank expects that this will only affect the Chinese pig herd fully restored after 2023.
Piglet prices are skyrocketing
Since the discovery of the new virus strains, concerns about the recovery of the pig herd have increased. The piglet price has even increased by more than 15%. The pig price, on the other hand, has actually fallen by 8%. Analysts attribute this decrease to a temporary increase in supply, as more pig farmers slaughter pigs out of fear of the new ASF mutations.
Sow herd is doing better than expected
There are also bright spots in the market and the situation is not all gloomy. The Chinese sow herd has performed better than expected in the first 2 months of the year. The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture reports that the sow herd grew slightly in January and February, contrary to the decline expected by analysts.
According to the figures, the sow herd increased by 1,1% in January and by 1% in February. It was estimated in advance that the stock would fall by 4,99% in January and 4,68% in February. According to a Reuters report, the number of sows in February was 34,1% higher than in the same period last year. According to the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture, the entire sow herd was back at 95% of the level at the end of 2017 at the end of February, before the country was struggling with ASF.
Perspective
Due to the recovery of the sow herd, the prospects on the market are somewhat more positive. The price of piglets may have skyrocketed, but if the supply will soon increase, the price will also drop again. When that will happen and to what extent depends greatly on the ASF spread. There is no way to gauge this yet.