Divided expectations on Chinese pig herd

Despite new ASF mutations, China is still very optimistic about the recovery of the domestic pig herd. The government recently announced that the number of pigs is increasing again and production capacity is also growing. The number of breeding sows grew by 1,1% in January and by 1% in February. The sow herd is 34% above the level of February 2020 and at 95% of pre-AVP level.

According to estimates, the entire domestic pig population is currently approximately 400 million head. The number of official slaughters in February was around 14,24 million, an increase of no less than 71,2% compared to the same period last year. The ministry even expects pig slaughters in the first half of 2021 to be about 65% ahead of last year's level.

Pig price
The Chinese pig price has been falling since the end of January this year. In just 2 months, the average price has fallen by as much as €0,90 per kilo to a price of €3,68 in mid-March. The price is therefore at the lowest level since March last year.

Pig prices may be going down, but that was also the case last September. At the time, the pig price fell to €3,77, before rising again to €4,58 in January.

Changing expectations
It is not the first time that China has said it is well on its way to recovering its pig herd. The country previously announced that capacity had returned to 90% of pre-AVP levels, but sector analysts seriously questioned this and said the recovery of the breeding system was still in its infancy.

This time too, sector analysts are skeptical about the Chinese ministry's expectations. Pig prices may be moving downwards, but piglet prices have not yet shown any signs of relaxation and are even on the rise. The analysts see this as an indicator of scarcity and they therefore expect a slower recovery of production capacity. Moreover, ASF is still lurking and outbreaks of the virus are still being reported. As long as the virus is still circulating, it will pose a threat to the pig herd.