Inside Pigs
Russia expects lower production growth due to AVP
The African swine fever (ASF) situation in Russia is not getting any better this year, several outbreaks have already been reported this year. The sector is therefore lowering the forecast for pork production in 2021. What are the export expectations?
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So far this year, 23 ASF outbreaks have been reported in Russia and more than 26.500 pigs have been culled. Between November 2020 and January 2021, as many as approximately 500.000 pigs were culled due to ASF. Major companies such as Miratorg and Cherkizovo were among others affected.
The National Union of Pig Breeders says ASF will hinder pork production growth for 2021. Where previously a production growth of 250.000 tons (about 4,5%) was expected, this expectation has now been adjusted to a growth of 180.000 tons. If the number of ASF outbreaks continues to increase, it is quite possible that expectations will be adjusted further downwards.
Export forecast
Last year, Russian pork exports developed extremely well. The country has changed from an importer to a global exporter. Total exports increased by no less than 86% last year to 200.580 tons. Vietnam in particular increased imports significantly, importing no less than 5 times as much as in 2019. Hong Kong was the second largest buyer of Russian pork.
The union keeps its forecast for pork exports for 2021 unchanged. This remains the same as last year's level. The lack of access to the Chinese market, because Russia does not have ASF-free status, hinders export growth. Exports may even decline slightly because Germany, which also lost its export license to China due to AVP, becomes competitive in markets such as Vietnam and Hong Kong.