Fear AVP brings down Chinese pig price

Analysts told Bloomberg that pig farmers are selling their herds because they fear outbreaks of African swine fever (ASF). Furthermore, transport bans are also regularly imposed by the authorities. This hinders pig farmers from selling their animals. According to Bloomberg, current developments may mean that fewer imports will be made in the short term.

Chinese pig farmer wants to avoid problems
Livestock farmers' panic sales started in mid-January. A series of outbreaks in the country's northern provinces caused pig farmers to fear that their animals would also become infected. By selling the pig herd at the high prices at the time, they hoped to avoid problems and still benefit from the favorable market conditions. The large supply caused wholesale pork prices to drop to a level of 34 yuan in early April, equivalent to around €4,36 per kilo. This is the lowest level since August 2019.

In addition to the fear of contamination, limited transport options also play a role in the shrinking livestock herd. High pork-consuming provinces in the southern part of the country have suspended live imports to prevent the spread of ASF. ASF seemed to be on the rise last winter, especially in the north. Now that the main consuming regions no longer import pigs from the north, this limits the transport options of pig farmers. Livestock farmers also hope to avoid this problem with quick sales.

Rising prices possible from May
Due to the reduced pig herd and the seasonal recovery of demand in the coming period, pig prices may rise again from May. Relatively many piglets also died during the winter period, which also contributes to an additional tightening of supply. Optimistic statements are made about the recovery of the Chinese pig herd, but these can be questioned.