What is China's pork production doing?

For the first 3 months of 2021, China's pork production amounted to 13,68 million tons. Compared to the same period last year, this is an increase of 31,9%. The level is not only higher than the first quarter of last year, but it is even the highest quarterly volume of the past 2 years.

The increase in pork production is a result of the reconstruction of the Chinese pig herd, which is suffering major losses due to the African swine fever. The domestic pig herd grew and at the end of March there were 415,95 million pigs in the country. This is an increase of 29,5% compared to the same period last year and also higher than the number at the end of December 2020. At the time there were 406,5 million units.

Doubts about recovery 
However, there are doubts about the recovery of the pig herd. Analysts believe that the higher pork production is related to pigs that were sent to slaughter early due to fears of ASF. Illegal vaccines have caused new variants of the virus to flare up and, out of fear of possible infections, many pig farmers have taken their pigs to slaughter as a preventative measure. The average slaughter weight was therefore lower than last year, which, according to a Chinese analyst, indicates that early slaughter was an important reason for the increase in total pork production. Pork prices have also fallen significantly since the beginning of the year, which is an indication of increased slaughter volume.

Prices have risen again in the past week, suggesting that supply is probably not yet back to previous levels. In addition, total Chinese meat imports also increased significantly in March. Imports amounted to 1,02 million tonnes, which is a whopping 60% more than in the same period last year and an increase of 44% compared to February this year. These figures cast doubt on the recovery of China's pig herd.