Inside pigs
More pigs, but production lags behind
The quarterly update from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) shows that the global pig population will grow significantly this year. According to estimates by the ministry, there were about 15% more pigs present worldwide at the start of the year than last year.
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According to the USDA, this is mainly due to moderate productivity of the pig herd in China, where about half of all pigs worldwide are located. Health-related problems are putting pressure on production figures. In addition, prices for raw materials worldwide have risen sharply in recent months. Prices for pig feed are therefore rising rapidly, which in China, among other places, means that pig farmers will have their animals slaughtered earlier. The expected global production increase for pork is therefore only 5%.
Mixed picture of Asian markets
The Asian export markets that are important for European pig farmers show a mixed picture in terms of production. As several analysts predicted, the Chinese pig herd in particular is making a strong recovery. At the beginning of this year, there were 31% more pigs on Chinese farms, according to the USDA report. China's total pork production is increasing by 11%, according to the USDA. This means that production would still be 25% behind that before the outbreak of African swine fever.
However, the growth of the Chinese pig herd is uncertain. Data provided by the Chinese government is too positive according to analysts and last winter, new outbreaks of African swine fever were responsible for a temporary decline in animal numbers.
Other important pork importers such as South Korea and the Philippines are seeing pig production decline, making them more dependent on meat from exporters. Production in South Korea shrinks by 3,5% and in the Philippines by 10,3%.
European Union, Brazil and Russia increase production
According to the latest forecasts from the USDA, major producers such as the European Union, Brazil and Russia are able to slightly increase their production. In the EU, pork production increases by 1,5%, in Brazil 3% and in Russia 2,5%.
Own production under pressure
Recently it became clear that the Americans' own pork production is under pressure in the current year. Disease pressure in the American pig herd causes production to be estimated lower. Pork prices rose to high levels.
World trade in pork stable
Developments at a global level ensure that the total world trade in pork remains virtually unchanged, according to the USDA. This is now estimated at 2021 million tons for 11,5.