News Meat
FAO: meat production will rise sharply until 2030
Meat production and consumption will increase sharply until 2030. This is what the World Food Organization expects FAO in its new outlook for agricultural commodities. The driving force behind this increase is the growth of the world population and rising incomes.
Meat production is expected to increase by 13% (44 million tons) until 2030. Global meat production will then reach a level of 373 million tons. Production will be stimulated, especially in the coming years, by relatively high yields. Meat prices are still at high levels in the wake of the African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks in many Asian countries. For the period 2025 to 2030, the FAO foresees lower prices for meat.
Chicken is requested
Most of this growth is due to poultry meat. Poultry production is expected to increase by 17% (23 million tons) due to strong international demand. Chicken is popular with consumers in developing countries (low cost) as well as in richer countries (image that white meat is healthier). The share of chicken in the total amount of meat consumed will therefore increase by a few percent, at the expense of pork and beef. The production of poultry meat also offers advantages for producers. Due to the short production cycles, market developments can be anticipated quickly.
According to the FAO, total pork production will grow by 14 million tons. Production will then amount to 2030 million tons in 127. Compared to the reference period 2018-2020, this is a growth of 13%. Especially in the period up to 2023, Asian countries will still have to deal with outbreaks of ASF, which will depress production.
Stricter Regulations
Global pork production will not equal the level before the large-scale ASF outbreaks until 2023. Production will continue to increase in the following years. Production in the European Union is likely to shrink. This is due to increasingly strict regulations. This production is taken over by countries in Asia, Latin America, Africa and Russia.
The FAO emphasizes that forecasting meat consumption is difficult to make, due to the many demographic factors that influence this. From the past, however, the growth of the population appears to be one of the most important predictors. Expectations about population growth have therefore been included as an important indicator in the forecasts for the 1-2021 period.
Steve Wissink
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