Piglet exports weak and gloomy after a good start to the year

In the first 26 weeks of 2021, 3.326.108 Dutch piglets were exported. That was more than 85.000, or 2,5%, less than last year. Then, in the first 6 months, 3.411.732 Dutch piglets found a place in a foreign stable. Exports to Germany in particular have suffered significant damage. Many of these piglets were now sold to Spain.

Germany
The export of piglets to Germany has been well below last year's levels all year. This is due to the difficult situation on the German pig market, which is suffering from outbreaks of African swine fever. German fattening pig farmers have insufficient insight into returns and therefore order fewer piglets. 

In total, around 26 piglets were sold to German pig farmers in the first 2021 weeks of 1.913.908. Last year there were 2.201.948 units in the same period. A decrease of more than 13%, more than 280.000 units.

Spain
The piglets that were not sold to Germany largely found their way to Spain in the first half of the year. Exports to Spain increased considerably. 817.430 piglets were exported to the country. That was no less than 50%, or about 270.000 more than in the same period last year: 543.529 went to Spanish companies. However, in recent weeks there has been a rapid decline in the number of piglets exported to Spain. The market is difficult, which is already clearly reflected in the export figures.

Other destinations
After the main destinations of Germany and Spain, most piglets left for Belgium and Luxembourg (406.618), Italy (49.250), Poland (30.314), Romania (26.968), Austria (24.506) and Slovenia (22.692).

Are there any further leads?
In recent weeks, the piglet market has hit increasingly difficult waters. The DCA BestPigletPrice had to make a significant concession, partly due to weak export figures. Inquiries about the prospects of various market parties make it clear that trust is currently lacking. For example, a trader indicates that the demand for piglets across Europe is very weak. In many places, slaughterhouses are also not operating at full capacity. All this leads to little trust. Another factor is that feed prices are moving at high levels: there is no prospect of return.

Due to the loss of demand, there is also less need from Spanish integration to stock piglets now. The historical pattern in which Spaniards are mainly in the market in the spring to meet the holiday peak in the summer appears to be returning.

Uncertainty about the further spread of ASF also plays a role in the German market. The discovery of ASF in farmed pigs has not done any good to confidence. There are therefore hardly any starting points for a smooth recovery of demand. 

Furthermore, attention is also drawn to the major expansions that are planned in Spanish sow farming. Although the effects of this may not be immediately noticeable in the coming 12 months, these additional piglets are on the way, a trader explains. If confidence in the pig market were to return in the coming months, there could still be a (temporary) revival of Spanish interest in piglets. In the longer term, however, Spain will probably structurally purchase fewer piglets.

Despite the pessimism, traders indicate that the mood in pig country can quickly change. If demand from China increases again and feed prices drop slightly, the world could look very different in 3/4 weeks, or so it sounds.