Analysis Pigs
Too little conviction for pig price increase
The pig market is finally moving again, after the past few weeks have been downright boring. The increase in the German pig price is causing friction in the chain. Slaughterhouses are cutting off the rise.
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It was surprising that the German pig price (VEZG) rose by 3 cents to €1,23 on Wednesday. It was less surprising that the large slaughterhouses such as Vion and Tönnies announced a 'Hauspreise' shortly afterwards. You could somewhat expect that in this market situation - where the pig supply varies from week to week. In addition, slaughterhouses have been saying for weeks that meat sales are difficult. According to Tönnies, the increase is therefore not in line with the current market situation. Dutch slaughterhouses are also raising awareness and giving similar signals.
Neither meat nor fish at the meat market
Looking at the sentiment on the meat market, there is neither meat nor fish. The troubles surrounding the coronavirus (and the restrictive measures associated with it) are overshadowing the traditional Christmas demand for hams and tenderloins. Ham sales in particular are disappointing. Although meat prices have been in the starting blocks for a year-end sprint for a long time, the starting shot never sounded.
Pig supply remains ample
Looking at the pig supply, this remains ample, although slaughter figures are increasing. In the past week, the Dutch slaughter figure was 324.000, with the average weight dropping by more than 1 kilo to 98,9 kilos. In Germany, a total of 878.449 pigs were hanging on the hooks.
After next week the slaughter plans will be scaled down. Although the holidays fall on a weekend this year, there will be less slaughter. Many migrant workers in the slaughter and meat processing sector return to their country of birth around Christmas and New Year. And with the current staff shortages, slaughterhouses were already struggling to fill their rosters.
Mixed feelings about trade
Although the pig market is moving again, the Dutch trade views the current market situation with mixed feelings. Some traders are opting for an increase following the move in Germany. Others have little confidence that slaughterhouses will still come along next week and therefore opt for unchanged. Based on the statements and conversations with traders, the DCA Exchange Price 2.0 remains at €1,19 per kilo for slaughtered pigs. The price of live pigs remains unchanged at €0,90 per kilo.
Explanation of listing from DCA Markets
| DCA Scholarship Price 2.0 | Statements from - to | Average | listing |
| Levend | 0,90 - 0,91 | 0,902 | 0,90 |
| Gender | 1,19 - 1,21 | 1,194 | 1,19 |
|
Explanation of listing: The supply of pigs is still plentiful and traders indicate that they cannot run out. This means that the story on the Dutch pig market for the coming week is no different than in previous weeks. Space is created by selling pigs to Poland and Italy, among others. And although Poland pays more for the pigs, money still needs to be added. The increase in the German pig price and the Internet exchange was not followed by the German slaughterhouses. There was no expectation among traders that Dutch slaughterhouses would follow a possible increase in the Stock Exchange. Traders have no interest in a cigar from their own box. In addition, traders expect that any increase will be punished with a double reduction. Peace and stability are what traders focus on. In total, the declarations for slaughtered pigs this week were 19 (+1). A price was entered for live pigs 17 times (+1). The numbers in brackets indicate how many assignments were missed at the bottom (negative number) and how many at the top (positive number). If there is a zero, all entries are included. Comments from traders included with the price movement for week 50: |