Analysis Pigs
Pig price remains on the chain
Although the demand for pigs has increased in recent weeks, the market has not been able to push through to higher price levels. The resistance in the chain is too great. After this week, the demand for pigs will weaken and the hopes of an increase this year have finally disappeared.
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The picture of recent weeks fits in seamlessly with the market situation that characterizes this year. The offer always stands in the way of a possible increase. In addition, meat supplies are ample. An increase is simply not possible. The large slaughterhouses in Germany also ignored the increase in the VEZG quotation that took place last week. As a result, there is still some friction on the German market. It is most likely that the VEZG quotation will have to drop next week and return to €1,20 per kilo.
The slaughter figures show that slaughterhouses have slowed down a bit in the run-up to Christmas. In the Netherlands, 333.000 pigs were on the hook last week with an average slaughter weight of 99,8 kilos. This is the highest number since February. In Germany too, slaughter figures rose slightly to almost 900.000 pigs. The effect of this is noticeable, because the offer is described as less extensive compared to the picture a few weeks ago.
'Yo-yo effect' in supply
However, the offer is heading for a 'yo-yo effect'. The fact that the holidays fall on a weekend this year does not mean that slaughterhouses will continue to use normal slaughter schedules in the coming weeks. Slaughterhouses will scale down in the coming weeks, partly because the meat processing industry is in need of fewer raw materials. The major staff shortage is a limiting factor, especially now that migrant workers are returning to their home country for the Christmas celebrations. In the coming weeks, the trade will have to do some trial and error to get the pigs placed. The supply will therefore increase again towards the beginning of 2022.
Based on the statements, the DCA Exchange Price 2.0 remains at €1,19 per kilo for slaughtered pigs for the eleventh week in a row. The price of live pigs is unchanged at €0,90. The most likely scenario is that the stable trend in pig prices continues until mid-January. The balance sheet can then be drawn up again. And if the market starts to turn in between, the chance of a reduction is greater than an increase. There are some signals that China will re-enter the market for European pork in the spring of 2022, but this is not yet noticeable in the meat trade. In short: for the time being the prospects remain moderate to poor.
Explanation of listing from DCA Markets
| DCA Scholarship Price 2.0 | Statements from - to | Average | listing |
| Levend | 0,90 - 0,91 | 0,901 | 0,90 |
| Gender | 1,19 - 1,21 | 1,192 | 1,19 |
| The last week before Christmas is often not the week in which pig prices are increased. In the coming week, the slaughterhouses will operate at 60% to 80% of their capacity. Anyone who has not pre-sorted in time will have difficulty finding a place for the pigs in the coming weeks. Reportedly, quite a few pigs were brought to buyers in Eastern and Southern Europe in the past week, which helped to relieve the worst of the pressure on those traders. Nevertheless, there remains a plentiful supply in the Netherlands. The averaging of the prices quoted by the trade leaves nothing to be desired in terms of clarity. In total, the declarations for slaughtered pigs this week were 19 (0). A price was entered for live pigs 18 times (0). The numbers in brackets indicate how many assignments were missed at the bottom (negative number) and how many at the top (positive number). If there is a zero, all entries have been included. Notes for week 51: - Poor sales. - Now that piglet prices are rising, pigs will really have to go up. If you look at the parts prices of the past few weeks, plus 5 cents is easily achievable. - Unchanged, oversupply is not too bad. |
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