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Analysis Pigs

Pig market has yet to find its way

7 January 2022 - Wouter Baan

The pig market has yet to get going in the first week of the new year. The market is marked by a large supply of live pigs, while the demand for meat is still at its lowest.

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The rough start to the new year should come as no surprise. There is - as expected - a lot of demand around Christmas and New Year less gender, which has further increased the already ample pig supply. Furthermore, slaughterhouses are in little haste with slaughter, partly due to major staff shortages they have to deal with. 

In the Catholic countries, activities were completely at a low level this week, as they celebrated 'Epiphany' on Thursday, January 6. The meat processing industry is expected to start up next week, although it will likely take time to get up to speed. 

Meat question still lukewarm
In the meantime, slaughterhouses are expressing concern about the weak sentiment in the market, especially since export demand outside Europe is weak and stocks are ample. In addition, sales to the food service are greatly missed as a result of the lockdown. The fact that the Internet Exchange rose a cent to €7 per kilo on Friday January 1,28 is therefore extra striking. Especially since all five lots were traded, which has rarely happened lately. At the same time, we have to take the market indicator with a grain of salt, given that the trading volume is insignificant.

Parties in the Dutch pig trade have taken into account the current market situation. "Just bite the bullet," is the motto. Based on the statements, the DCA Exchange Price 2.0 for slaughtered pigs remains at €1,19 per kilo, while the price of live pigs remains unchanged at €0,90.

Explanation of listing from DCA Markets

DCA Scholarship Price 2.0 Statements from - to Average listing
Levend € 0,90 - € 0,92 €0,903 €0,90
Gender € 1,19 - € 1,21 €1,194 €1,19
Explanation of the odds for week 2:

There is tension over the development of pig prices. On the one hand, there are more and more traders who are eager to interrupt the rhythm of unchanged trading. Many are fed up. The slaughterhouses are expressing opposition. This is where the signals emerge that things are not going well in the meat trade and that prices are under pressure.

The averaging of the assignments makes it clear that some upward movement can be observed, but that this is insufficient to achieve a plus. And that is a disappointment. The bright spot, if any, is the willing intake of pigs in Germany (German origin) and Poland.

In the Netherlands, slaughterhouses are initially busy getting rid of the supply due to the holidays, but this seems to be less extensive than it used to be. We will only see the true face of the pig market in a few weeks.

In total, the declarations for slaughtered pigs this week were 18 (+1). A price was entered for live pigs 16 times (0). The numbers in brackets indicate how many assignments were missed at the bottom (negative number) and how many at the top (positive number). If there is a zero, all entries are included.

Comments from traders included with the price movement for week 2:
- Offer remains too large! It won't get any worse in the coming weeks.
- Act foolishly.
- The stock market must send a signal that the pig price really needs to increase. Dutch fatteners pay the least for the pigs with the highest costs.
- Very large supply of pigs in relation to the slaughter plan. Once again passing on with pigs. Meat sales very difficult.
- Unchanged. Supply will decrease.

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