Can Japan import some 'Chinese' pork?

Japan is not self-sufficient in pork and imports a large volume every year from various parts of the world. In 2021, the total imported volume was 1.420.000 tons, according to the USDA. This volume is expected to rise to 1.445.000 tons in 2022. The United States is the main supplier, although the country's share in the total import volume decreased somewhat last year. European exporters managed to increase volume again after a significant dip in 2020. The USDA expects this trend of fewer imports from the US and more from the EU and other destinations to continue this year.

Production growth under pressure
Japan has been struggling with outbreaks of classical swine fever for years. Although a large-scale vaccination strategy has been rolled out, around 100.000 pigs still had to be culled last year. Since 2018, efforts have been made to restore the pig herd by, among other things, importing breeding material. However, logistical difficulties and the tight availability of breeding material worldwide have significantly delayed this build-up. In 2020 and 2021, the pig herd even decreased slightly again. The number of sows fell from 845.000 in 2020 to 823.000 in 2021, according to the USDA.

It ensures that pork production virtually stabilizes in 2022. At the same time, the demand for pork is increasing sharply after the corona pandemic, and import volumes will therefore be higher. Moreover, because the US is losing some market share, European exporters are expected to increase exported volumes. An important windfall on the export markets now that exports to China are under heavy pressure.

Bright spots in exports
Also the export to export destination number 3, the Philippines, rose considerably last year. Due to African swine fever outbreaks, that country is struggling with a small pork supply that is supplemented by imports. The larger export volumes to other Asian countries cannot fully compensate for the lost volumes to China, but they do offer some perspective.