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Analysis DCA Benchmark Price - Pigs

How much rack is left in the pig price?

June 24, 2022 - Wouter Baan - 2 comments

The pig market is in the phase of significant price increases. A tight supply of pigs ready for slaughter and positive impulses from the meat market are causing prices to move upwards. Is the market still so positive at the moment, and how much stretch is there in the price?

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Pig prices have also started to rise in Germany, after the market in the Netherlands had already picked up earlier. The VEZG quotation rose on Wednesday by 5 cents to €1,85 per kilo, which the large slaughterhouses went along with. The tight supply and shrinkage of the pig herd offer few fallback options, because then empty hooks are the result. In that respect, the position of German pig farmers has improved considerably in recent months. Due to the 5D strategy, foreign pigs are often not an equivalent alternative.

In the Netherlands, the supply is proportionally wider, but the pigs are also well placed here. The seasonally drying up supply is the reason for this, as are the better meat sales. The market has also improved in other European countries. Pigs are also kept here and there, all the more so because piglet prices are rising more moderately.  

Summer weather does meat consumption good
Meat sales in Europe are benefiting from the summer weather. This is especially the case in some parts of Germany. In the Netherlands, sunny days and rain alternate. Arable farmers and dairy farmers are delighted with this, but that is an aside. The Asian export markets are hesitant to go along with the price increases that are demanded, according to exporters. By reducing the demand volumes now, there is a chance that the pork will be much more expensive in the future. A fall in pig prices does not seem likely in the short term and does not fit with the seasonal pattern. But export demand continues to show strong resistance. 

At this time of year, pig prices often rise, but usually moderately. Price increases of more than 10 cents are not common historically, although the market is not paying much attention to this at the moment. This is a welcome development for pig farmers, given the sky-high feed prices. How much rack does the pig price still have? The German VEZG quotation will probably continue to rise to around €1,90 per kilo next week. The next price target is then the limit of €2 per kilo, but it is far from that.

manageable price increase
While the current momentum is good, it is unlikely to last for weeks. All the more so because during the holiday season the sentiment is often calmer. At the moment, the market is already cooling off a bit, traders indicate. The movements in the DCA stock price in recent weeks have been surpassed by the slaughterhouses, but this will not be the case next week, according to insiders. This means that traders often opt for manageable price increases. Based on the statements, the DCA Scholarship 2.0 increases by €0,03 to €1,74 per kilo for the slaughtered pigs. The price of live pigs increases by €0,02 to €1,37 per kilo.

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