Chinese pig price rises, imports recover slightly

Pig prices in China have risen sharply in recent months. This increase started in mid-April. For example, the price of pigs rose by more than 25% in July alone compared to June. The recovery of pork consumption after several corona lockdowns in China is an important driver behind this development. It is also reported that many pig farmers have reduced production slightly or are less generous with releasing the pigs to the market, in order to support the price.

According to reports from the Chinese government, the pig population in the country and therefore the production of pork is steadily increasing. China reports a production of 365,87 million live pigs in the first half of this year, an increase of 8,4% compared to the same period last year. Pork production amounted to 29,39 million tons, an increase of 8,2%. The number of breeding sows at the end of the second quarter amounted to 42,77 million animals, an increase of 2,2% compared to the end of the first quarter.

Continue to nurture other export markets
Although the Chinese pig sector is growing, the import of meat continues to be necessary to feed its own population. According to the latest preliminary data, China imported more than 640.000 tons of meat in July, an increase of almost 7% compared to June. This figure has not yet been broken down into meat by origin (beef, pork, chicken). This means that imports appear to be recovering slightly, because the volume in July is still almost a quarter lower than last year. In the first seven months of this year, China imported about 4,1 million tons of meat, more than 30% less than a year earlier.

Large import volumes as in the past two years therefore still seem a long way off, but rather Rabobank to expect a recovery in Chinese pork demand in the second half of this year. “Pig prices in China more than doubled in July 2022 from their March low. The Chinese government plans to rein in higher prices and stabilize the economy. This is likely to lead to a recovery in pork consumption (especially in food service) and higher pork imports." Rabobank does warn to continue to cherish all other export markets. "However, maintaining exports to other markets remains important to avoid a surplus of specific pork products in Europe."