Due to the expiry of the grain deal and Russian attacks on ports in Ukraine, the grain market recently showed significant price increases. This will not affect compound feed prices, as they may continue to fall for the time being.
Data from Wageningen Economic Research shows that chunk prices cooled further in July. The price of pork chunks fell by €10 to €333,50 per tonne. Sow feed also became considerably cheaper during that period, as did piglet pellets. Cattle feeds also show a downward trend. For example, the price of A-brok fell by €7 last month to €337,50 per tonne. Price falls in July were slightly more moderate than a month earlier.
However, this is not a harbinger that the downward trend in the compound feed market will come to a standstill. The compound feed price indicator also provides room for price decreases of up to 10% in the coming months. Both for cattle and pigs. The revival on the Matif, which recently rose from €230 to above €260 per tonne, does little to detract from the expected price reductions. Moreover, the downward trend on the grain market has already started, although the market remains volatile. In addition, compound feed prices are still tight in relation to raw material prices.
Weather market
The expiration of the grain deal and continued Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports appear to have been priced into the market at the time of writing. However, the grain market is still affected by the weather. Both parts of the US and Europe are suffering from severe drought. In our part of Europe, the grain harvest is actually delayed due to heavy rainfall. Nevertheless, the global wheat harvest appears to be above the long-term average in 2023.