Pig population is shrinking fastest in Denmark

According to the most recent count of the European Union the pig herd in Denmark will decrease by 2022% in 12,2. Last year, the number of pigs shrank by 1,8 million to 13,3 million pigs. Six months later, the size of the pig herd appeared to have decreased even further. According to the Danish National Statistics Office, the pig population on July 1 stood at 11 million pigs, 9,6% less than the previous year. The rapid decline in pig stocks is immediately reflected in Denmark slaughter rate. The number of slaughters fell by 16,3% last year. 

The pig population is declining rapidly because many Danish pig farmers are choosing to stop farming. In 2021, Denmark still had 2.576 pig farms. In 2022, this figure dropped to 2.399 pig farmers. The same reasons apply for this as in other countries. At the end of February, the official advisory body of the Danish government issued advice to severely limit the size of the Danish livestock sector. In addition, finding follow-up often proves to be a problem. Of course, like the rest of the European Union, the sector has suffered major blows after the Ukraine war. In 2022, the number of Danish pig farmers fell by 6%. 

Low prices
An important difference with other European countries is that the Danish slaughter price has been structurally lower than in competing countries since mid-2021. For example, in week 34 of 2023, €2,30 per kilo was paid in Germany. In the same week, the Dutch price was €2,21 and French pig farmers received €2,16. The Danish slaughter price, on the other hand, was on average €1,81 per kilo. In addition to the rapid shrinkage of the pig herd, this difference also explains why the slaughter figure is declining even faster. Low Danish prices make it more attractive to have pigs slaughtered across the border.

There is one clear reason for this low slaughter price. Denmark is a lot more dependent on exports to countries outside the European Union than other European core markets. Of the 1,96 million tons of pork produced in 2022, according to the Danish Statistics Agency, Denmark exported 1,9 million tons. No less than 855.000 tonnes of pork was exported to third countries, according to Eurostat figures. This amounts to 43,7% of Danish pork. Due to the high European pork prices, third countries are currently ignoring the European market. In 2021, Denmark achieved an export record of more than 1 million tons of pork, about 150.000 tons more than last year.

This year too, exports appear to be lower again. In the period from January to June, Denmark exported 317.000 tons of pork. A year ago, the country exported almost 410.000 tons in the same period, a decrease of 22,7%. What is especially sad is the loss of exports to China, traditionally the largest importer of Danish pork. Between 2022 and 2023, exports to the Asian country fell by 29,7% from 511.000 tons to 360.000 tons. For now, this decline appears to be continuing. In the first half of 2022, China imported 148.600 tons. In the same period this year, exports fell to 111.000 tonnes, a decline of 25,3%.

Perspective limited
Since this year, Danish slaughterhouses, including superpower Danish Crown, seem to be increasingly choosing to limit slaughter capacity. This strategy should not be surprising. The Danish pig sector seems to have fallen between the table and napkin. Due to increasingly strict environmental legislation and low energy supply security, it seems unlikely that Danish pork prices will return to a level that is competitive on the world market in the short term. On the other hand, Danish prices are too low to keep up with the rest of the European market. The chances that the current contraction can be reversed again appear to be virtually nil.