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Analysis Pigs

Calm before the storm on the pig market?

10 November 2023 - Wouter Baan

The mood on the pig market has hardly changed for a few weeks. The expected Christmas demand has not yet materialized and the supply of pigs ready for slaughter is in line with demand.

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Viewed from the unchanging market pattern, it is not surprising that pig prices have been moving sideways for a few weeks in a row. There is also little movement on the meat market. Most carcass parts mutate stably. The current situation may be the calm before the storm, although price increases do not seem to be an ABC in advance. 

The expectation is that Christmas demand will start from mid-December, as is often the case. Meat supplies are tight in Northwestern Europe. Therefore, the market could move quickly if demand increases. It is true that a lot of pork is offered from Spain. The pig price there is under pressure. The Danes are also active in sales in Europe. Demand on the global market is very tame, as has been the case for some time. It is still difficult to estimate how the market will respond to additional demand. 

Clear offer
The pig supply in the Netherlands is quite clear. With 299.423 slaughters there is an increasing trend, but in other years the slaughter numbers were often much higher during this period. The average slaughter weight is 99,7 kilos, neither high nor low. In Germany, the supply has been somewhat larger in recent weeks due to a few broken slaughter weeks due to holidays, but this does not cause any problems. In fact, this is probably a relief for the slaughterhouses in times of almost structural shortages.  

On balance, there is currently no reason to move the pork price. This means that the DCA Exchange Price 2.0 remains at €2,08 per kilo for the slaughtered pigs. The price of live pigs remains the same at €1,65 per kilo.

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