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Analysis Pigs

Traders do not want to force pig prices

18 November 2023 - Wouter Baan

In the pig market there is still hope for a Christmas rally, but this has not yet materialized. Whether this will ever happen remains to be seen. In any case, traders do not want to force things this year.

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The situation on the pig market has been more or less the same for weeks. Demand for pork is weak to normal. The pig supply is well able to meet this, although meat supplies are low. At most, meat sales will pick up slowly, insiders assure. There is no question of a revival of Christmas demand yet.

Sometimes yes, sometimes not
In the meantime, pig prices in Northwestern Europe have been stable for a few weeks. This also suits this time of year. Sometimes prices increase from mid-November, but that is not the case every year. From 2015 onwards, there were four Christmas revivals. In other years the market moved sideways, or even downwards, in the closing phase of the year. If there is any upward momentum, prices usually cannot sustain after the holidays. In that respect, the effect of the Christmas rally should not be exaggerated. Yet the market hopes for it every year.

Don't force it 
With four full slaughter weeks ahead of us, there is still some time for pig prices to pick up. Whether or not it will happen remains to be seen. Some traders think so, others are happy if the (still relatively high) prices can hold up. In any case, there is little need to forcefully increase the market and then turn a blind eye. The Christmas holidays this year are unfavorable in terms of market flow, traders are already anticipating. 

The slaughter figures up to and including week 45 remain below the limit of 300.000 with stable slaughter weights of an average of 98,7 kilos. As indicated, this is neither tight nor spacious and therefore fits in well with the current somewhat resigned market sentiment.

Stable mutation
Based on the statements, the DCA Exchange Price 2.0 remains at €2,08 per kilo for the slaughtered pigs. The price of live pigs also remains the same at €1,65 per kilo.

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