Bulk prices moved downward for almost two years after rising to sky-high levels due to the war in Ukraine. However, this decline came to an end in May. And that is still a little earlier than expected.
It was expected that the decline would lag somewhat in the summer months, but that is not the case. Figures from Wageningen Economic Research (WER) show that both pig and cattle feeds are rising again and this can safely be called a break in the trend. Never before in recent history has the price decline lasted for so long, although this was preceded by a particularly strong rebound.
The price of A-brok increased by €1,50 last month to €306,50 per tonne. The quotation of pork chunks also increased by €1,50 to €293,50 per tonne. Sow pellets and protein-rich B pellets also became slightly more expensive.
More expensive wheat and soy
The cause of the price increases obviously lies with the raw materials markets. In May, the wheat price on the Matif rose sharply to almost €270 per tonne. Soy also became more expensive at the CBoT in Chicago last month, as a result of the floods in Brazil. This also supported wheat prices, as did lower crop forecasts in Russia and Ukraine.
There is often a delay of about three months between the raw materials market and compound feed prices, but now the relationship was slightly more direct. This probably has to do with the speed of price increases on the raw materials market. However, wheat and soy prices on the futures market are falling again quite rapidly at the beginning of June. When the dust settles, wheat balances in Europe, the US and Russia appear to be quite ample in 2024/25. This is also due to large initial stocks that are still available for export.
Feed grains such as wheat and barley also became considerably more expensive in the physical market in the first half of May, although here too a turnaround is now visible. On balance, the feed raw materials markets look a bit nervous and can rightly be called 'weather markets' at the moment. This means that erratic price movements must continue to be taken into account.
Compound feed price indicator
De Compound feed price indicator van Boerenbusiness predicts slightly rising prices for pork chunks in the coming months, although this does not apply to A-pellets.