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Analysis Pigs

Hopeful pig market ends in anticlimax

5 July 2024 - Wouter Baan - 4 comments

Retrospectively, the only conclusion that can be drawn is that expectations for pig prices this summer were far too high. Where prices should actually rise, the opposite happens. It can be said that the market is certainly not lucky either.

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It would happen during the European football championship in Germany, as the market buzzed months ago. The tournament is now quite advanced, but has not supported the market at all. The reality is that sales of pork parts are very disappointing. Demand in the market is failing, partly due to the lack of summer weather in Northwestern Europe. Whether or not barbecue weather makes a big difference for consumption.

Headwind
In addition, as previously indicated, the market is facing headwinds from the recent outbreaks of African swine fever in Germany and trade tensions between China and the European Union regarding import duties on electric cars. Pork has become an unsolicited part of this as a Chinese countermeasure. This week it was announced that the European Union will continue to impose high import duties on Chinese electric cars. This is a setback for the pig sector, as China has already indicated that it is considering boycotting European pork as a substitute.

Meanwhile, pork prices are clearly moving downward. The Dutch slaughterers, who mutated on Wednesday, unanimously reduced their prices by 5 cents, which was significantly more than the 2 cents earlier in the week at Vion. The German VEZG quotation even fell by 10 cents after a record-long stable period.

Offer limited
The pig supply is not so much the problem. Last week, the slaughter figure in our country dropped to 270.419 pigs. This is higher than last year at this time of year, but these are nevertheless not large numbers. With fewer than 680.000 pigs slaughtered, the supply is also limited in Germany. It is true that the slaughter figure will pick up again from week 28 onwards in most years.

Due to the declining slaughterhouse quotation, the DCA Stock Exchange Price 2.0 cannot avoid a major correction. The quotation for slaughtered pigs drops by €0,10 to €2,06 per kilo. The price of live pigs drops by €0,08 to €1,62 per kilo.

Click here for an explanation from DCA Market Intelligence on the listing.

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