Analysis Pigs
German pig market remains remarkably stable
While the pig markets in its main import markets have started to move a bit, the German pig price has remained stable for six weeks in a row. The increase has not gone unnoticed. Traders are aiming for a higher price, but slaughterhouses are not responding yet. Although the slaughter figure is lower than the five-year average, a small increase compared to last year seems sufficient to prevent real pressure on supply. In the meantime, the number of German sows is increasing according to the most recent count and the German market continues to consolidate.
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The German market has remained fairly stable in recent weeks. The VEZG has been trading at €2,00 for the sixth week in a row.
This stability is quite remarkable. In important markets from which Germany imports pigs and pork, movement is visible. For example, the Danish price decreased by 5 cents in the same period, and the Dutch price was slightly consolidated by an increase of 1 cent due to scarcity. On the Polish market, prices also increased by 1 cent a week later than in the Netherlands.
Rearguard action
In our eastern neighbours, prices may remain the same, but that does not mean that the increases have gone unnoticed. In German trade media, it can be read that traders are aiming for a small increase in pig prices. However, slaughterhouses indicate that they are not in favour of this. They indicate that the slaughtering capacity can hardly be increased due to a shortage of staff. In addition, demand is weak according to them. Although the end of the school holidays has ensured that demand has increased somewhat, German producers still speak of a quiet market.
Meanwhile, supply is lower than usual, but more generous than last year. In weeks 36 and 37, the German slaughter figure was around 735.000 pigs. That is considerably below the five-year average of around 781.000 pigs. However, compared to 2023, supply has increased somewhat. In that year, supply in week 36 was only 716.000 pigs and in week 37, 324.000 pigs were slaughtered. Although the pig supply is historically low, the market is not really tight compared to demand. It seems that such an increase is due to the structural decline of the German demand and the low European exports proves sufficient to meet German demand.
Slaughter rate decreases, sow herd increases
The increase in the slaughter figure does not come completely out of the blue, despite a small decrease in the pig population compared to 2023. Recent data from Destatis shows that the German pig population shrank in May 2024 compared to the November census of 2023. The total pig population decreased by 0,3% from 21,23 million pigs to 21,17 million pigs. The number of fattening pigs decreased more sharply in this period, by 1,2% from 9,56 million pigs to 9,45 million pigs. However, this is offset by a slight increase in the sow population. The May census shows that the number of sows increased by 1%, from just under 1,40 million sows to over 1,41 million sows. This is a sign that the pig population is about to increase slightly again from May onwards.
German market continues to consolidate
In addition, the German pig market is still consolidating. Recently published data from Destatis shows that the number of pig farms in Germany has fallen by 2,5% to 15.400 farms. This means that the number of German pig farmers has fallen by 400 farms. In 2022, the decline accelerated. In that year, Germany still had 17.900 pig farms. Since then, the number of pig farms has fallen by 11,5%, or 2.100 farms.