Analysis Pigs
Finally, the turning point has been reached in the pig market
After the slaughter weights only continued to increase in January, the turning point has finally been reached. The supply of pigs is easier to market, but it is still difficult in the meat trade. A higher pig price is therefore not yet in the cards.
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It is now February, but the broken weeks around Christmas and New Year are still echoing on the pig market. The pig clot has been very difficult to resolve in recent weeks, but there is now light at the end of the tunnel. Various traders indicate that the supply is noticeably easier to market.
Declining slaughter weights
The lower slaughter weights also confirm that the turning point has been reached, or actually already last week. In week 5, the average slaughter weight in the Netherlands decreased by 0,7 kilos to 103,30 kilos per pig. This is still very high, which means that it will take some time to restore the balance between supply and demand. Persistent severe frost would do the pig market good in light of the growth slowdown, but that is not in the cards for the time being.
It is striking that last week, with 314.131 pigs on the hook, a lot was also slaughtered. This also logically relieves the pig supply. In Germany, the slaughter figure also shows an upward trend, but the numbers of last year around this time are far from being reached. With 677.095 pigs, the slaughter figure last week was almost 10% below the same week a year ago. In addition, the slaughter weights in Germany are also showing a downward trend again and the 100 kilo limit has now been broken again.
Slow meat sales due to aftermath of FMD
The positive developments on the supply side are still too premature to stimulate pig prices. Sentiment on the meat market is still weak. This was also evident earlier this week from the lower prices of DCA carcass parts. Hams in particular, a heavyweight within the carcass, are difficult to market. This is because the United Kingdom is still closed to German pork and the supply on the European mainland has therefore increased considerably. This also applies to some other meat parts. There is still no sign that the British will lift the import ban, despite the fact that concerns about foot-and-mouth disease in Germany have faded into the background.
The current market picture only fits a sideways price, many traders are of the opinion. As a result, the DCA Exchange Price 2.0 remains at €1,72 per kilo for slaughtered pigs. The price of live pigs also mutates unchanged at €1,35 per kilo. Historically, the market picks up again in the spring and higher pig prices are therefore a matter of time.
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